Steven Tusa of JP Morgan has claimed superstar status for his call to sell General Electric in 2016 when it was $29 a share. At near $7 now, Tusa continues to press GE, saying shares are worth $6. As we've seen with Meredith Whitney and Mary Meeker, Wall St.'s superstar analysts often stay TOO long in their calls, prompting a term Ron calls "Guru Overshoot" We discuss this dynamic, the future for GE, the rise and fall of Eddie Lampert's Sears vision, and make some political predictions for 2020.
Inspired by Kate Welling & Mario Gabelli's new book "Merger Masters," the According to Sources Podcast is interviewing each participant from the book, starting with Karen Finerman of Metropolitan Capital. In this incredibly honest and candid interview, we discuss why Karen has in recent years AVOIDED the merger-arb world, despite beginning her career there. She discusses the future of women in finance, and recounts with vivid detail the painful collapse of the UAL buyout in 1989, and what lessons were learned from it.
Sujeet Indap, journalist at the FT wrote the following in July, 2018
" Apollo’s life insurance affiliate Athene Holding (ATH) and Caldera are battling each other for control of American Equity Investment Life (AEL), an Iowa retirement annuities specialist that said in May it had put itself up for sale and has attracted a number of bidders. Athene is also a defendant in the suit.
Caldera accused the defendants of “disparaging Caldera in the marketplace, issuing commercial and legal threats to those doing or considering business with Caldera and filing sham litigation in domestic and foreign fora”. Caldera is asking for at least $1.5bn in damages.
Sujeet joined me last week to update and discuss this ongoing dispute in what I regard as one of Wall St. most under-the-radar dramas...
Aaron Glick and Eric Rose from Cowen & Co. join the podcast this week to discuss Shire/Takeda, Aetna/CVS, ESRX/CI and several other large transactions. They describe the methods in which their team gains an edge on the rest of Wall St. in the merger & event space, and later we list what deals perhaps pose the greatest risks / present possible short trades. Companies discussed: COL, FOXA, DVMT, RCII, PACB, ESIO, AET, ESRX
Paul Singer, Michael Price and John Paulson are just a few of the great merger-arb investors and corporate titans of industry that are interviewed by Kate Welling in the new book "Merger Masters." With contributions by Mario Gabelli, the book examines the founding fathers of this industry, infamous deals gone both right and wrong, and revisits the effect Ivan Boesky had on the entire industry.
A quick summary before the weekend of why I believe ATHN is a long into the weekend, and why RBC and the market is misinterpreting the news.
In what I consider to be one of the best interviews thus far on According to Sources, Jason and I do a deep-dive into the situation between DVMT, VMW and Carl Icahn. What are the downside risks? Has Carl Icahn lost a step in recent years? What could a Rockwell Collins block from China mean for the entire merger-arb space? Does Dan Loeb stand ANY chance of winning the CPB board? We discuss these issues and much more.
What deal is most at risk from a market downturn? How does one handicap and source various deal approvals such as DOJ or MOFCOM and then gauge what each is worth for pending deals? In this week's podcast I give an update on the ongoing saga at Athenahealth (ATHN), weigh in on CA Inc., and answer the 7 questions on the minds of merger-arbs and deal speculators.
John Malone, Ron Burkle, Jana Partners, Tom Sandell: Each of these investors have either taken a stake or bid for Barnes & Noble (BKS). Now that the company has finally turned the review process over to an independent committee, will this time be different? What is this company worth? Would Amazon be interested? I give my thoughts and later I interview Gabelli analyst John Tinker.
1) Tesla: Is Elon Musk settling with the SEC really an all-clear?
2) Campbell Soup: As the stock continues to drift back to 2018 lows, the 2018 annual meeting has become an extremely binary event.
3) Athenahealth: What does this mean for the Elliott brand?
4) Papa John's: Will they be the next restaurant to go private?
5) The top-5 biggest investing mistakes i make